The Florida Forest Service isn’t hiding its concern about the 2026 fire season, especially when it comes to Southwest Florida. By mid-February, the state’s in the grip of its worst drought in a quarter-century, and it’s not just dry; fires are already flaring up faster than usual.
Southwest Florida’s on edge for a reason. More than 95% of the state faces drought, but SWFL is taking some of the hardest hits. The area barely got any rain during last year’s weak rainy season, so swamps and wetlands are almost bone dry. Water levels are way down.
There’s fuel everywhere. Years of leftover debris and this season’s dry, brittle undergrowth, sometimes called “standing matchsticks” in the pine forests, are setting the stage for intense, fast-moving fires.
It’s an early, aggressive season. By early February, the FFS already counted over 650 wildfires across Florida, well before the typical peak from March to June. The risk is so high, dozens of counties (including those in SWFL) have put emergency burn bans in place.
Fire officials keep pointing back to 2011, remembering how brutal that season got. Right now, they say 2026 looks dangerously similar, and the threat is running much higher than normal for this time of year.
2025 slammed Florida with its driest weather in more than a decade.
Southwest Florida, in particular, has taken the brunt of it; right now, the drought is worse than anything locals have seen since 2001.
At a recent meeting, public safety officials didn’t sugarcoat things. These dry spells aren’t just inconvenient; they set the stage for a dangerous brush fire season. The First Point Fire near Lake Okeechobee shows just how bad it can get. That blaze, which started just after lunch on Thursday, raced from the lake’s edge and tore through over 8,600 acres before crews could contain it on Saturday.
People living nearby couldn’t look away. Residents said it looked like a scene out of an “Apocalypse Now.” One camper claimed there was so much fire, so much smoke, she barely slept, worried the wind might shift, and the flames could leap over the rim canal in the night.
Firefighters had to get creative. The terrain around the lake is tricky, with mucky soil, canals, and changing water levels keeping heavy equipment out. So, crews set controlled burns along the levee whenever the wind allowed, hoping to choke off the wildfire’s fuel and steer it back toward the water.
“This was a wildfire. It was not a prescribed burn,” said Florida Forest Service District Manager Joe Debree. “We took advantage of the right weather conditions to reduce the risk to surrounding homes and burn it off.”
The burn area, or “block,” covers over 10,000 acres, but not every inch is expected to burn. Officials will map it out once the smoke clears and they can get a proper look from above.
Response teams didn’t hold back—tractor plows, wildland engines, air support, wildlife officers, drones, you name it. Still, as the drought drags on, fighting fires like this only gets tougher. The U.S. Drought Monitor now lists parts of Florida under severe or extreme drought.
Residents woke up to cars and patios dusted with ash. Smoke settled thick overnight, and officials warn it could hang around for days. If the wind turns, neighborhoods that thought they were in the clear could choke on haze. Drivers should stay alert as visibility can drop fast.
The Florida Forest Service is still investigating what sparked the fire. For now, they’re watching conditions closely, knowing the season’s just getting started.
