Southwest Florida sits on edge, waiting for the smallest spark. Firefighters know the region’s ready to burn. A year-long drought, worse than anything Florida’s seen in over two decades, has sucked the moisture out of the land, especially here in the southwest. Pine trees stand like matchsticks now. The ground beneath them? Bone-dry. All it takes is a dropped cigarette, one lightning strike, and the whole place could go up.
Hurricanes Ian, Helene, and Milton knocked down branches and trees, which now litter the forests and, having dried out, are primed to fuel a wildfire. There’s so much per acre, hundreds of tons, that if a fire gets going, it’ll burn hot and fast. Hard to contain, harder still to outrun. Wildfires move quickly. Hurricanes give you days to get out; wildfires, sometimes just minutes.
Southwest Florida has been drying out for a year, and the worst may be ahead. Last summer’s heat dome didn’t just break temperature records from Fort Myers to the Keys; it forced communities to open cooling centers, warn people about heatstroke, and brace for more. The summer rains barely showed up. The drought eased for a moment, then came roaring back. No hurricanes hit, rainfall stayed low, and by November, the soil baked, and lake levels dropped.
Collier County banned outdoor burning on Friday, January 16, 2026, becoming the 15th county to do so. Lee County followed on Tuesday, January 20, 2026, the last in the region to put a burn ban in place. No one knows when it’ll be safe again. For now, everyone’s just waiting for that spark.
